How close the Week 9 Composite projections were to the final scoring margins. Predictions used the Week 8 ratings available before those games.
Compared on the same 148 completed games across systems available this week. Individual summaries below may include additional games. Systems without results are marked unavailable. FPI uses reconstructed preweek projections for Indiana matchups. Changes compare each week's shared games using the same participating systems; opponents and game counts may differ.
| System | Available games | Compared games | Correct winners | Accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagarin | 150 | 148 | 130 | 87.8%-3.5 | 14.21 pts+0.7 |
| Massey | 148 | 148 | 133 | 89.9%+1.9 | 13.20 pts+0.2 |
| CalPreps | 150 | 148 | 129 | 87.2%-0.8 | 13.38 pts-0.3 |
| FPI | 150 | 148 | 127 | 85.8%-4.2 | 13.54 pts+0.5 |
| CJ.com Predictions | 150 | 148 | 130 | 87.8%-3.5 | 12.43 pts+0.5 |
Changes compare with Week 8 for this system. Accuracy changes are percentage points (pp); game coverage and opponents can differ between weeks.
Click any column heading to sort. Default: smallest miss first.
| Prediction | Final | Actual Margin | Off By | Winner Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northfield at Northwestern (+2.0) | Northwestern 41-0 | -41.0 | 43.0 | Incorrect |
| Tri at Union County (+24.0) | Tri 68-6 | 62.0 | 38.0 | Correct |
| Marion at Anderson (+14.5) | Marion 59-7 | 52.0 | 37.5 | Correct |
| Guerin Catholic at Lafayette Central Catholic (+11.0) | Guerin Catholic 47-0 | 47.0 | 36.0 | Correct |
| Benton Central at Covenant Christian (-29.5) | Covenant Christian 64-0 | -64.0 | 34.5 | Correct |
| Delta at New Palestine (-24.0) | New Palestine 63-7 | -56.0 | 32.0 | Correct |
| West Lafayette at Hamilton Heights (-6.0) | Hamilton Heights 38-0 | -38.0 | 32.0 | Correct |
| Fremont at Fairfield (-5.5) | Fremont 46-21 | 25.0 | 30.5 | Incorrect |
| Hanover Central at Hammond Central (+41.5) | Hanover Central 26-15 | 11.0 | 30.5 | Correct |
| McCutcheon at Terre Haute South (-5.5) | Terre Haute South 35-0 | -35.0 | 29.5 | Correct |
| North Montgomery at North Putnam (-13.5) | North Putnam 49-6 | -43.0 | 29.5 | Correct |
| West Central at North White (+28.5) | West Central 66-8 | 58.0 | 29.5 | Correct |
| South Decatur at Eastern (Pekin) (+7.5) | South Decatur 35-0 | 35.0 | 27.5 | Correct |
| Heritage Christian at Lapel (-55.0) | Lapel 42-14 | -28.0 | 27.0 | Correct |
| Bowman Academy at Indianapolis Washington (+16.5) | Bowman Academy 42-0 | 42.0 | 25.5 | Correct |
| Forest Park at Southridge (-25.5) | Southridge 58-7 | -51.0 | 25.5 | Correct |
| Franklin County at North Decatur (+16.5) | North Decatur 15-6 | -9.0 | 25.5 | Incorrect |
| Mount Vernon (Fortville) at Yorktown (-18.5) | Mount Vernon (Fortville) 48-41 | 7.0 | 25.5 | Incorrect |
| North Central (Farmersburg) at Eastern Greene (+13.5) | North Central (Farmersburg) 45-6 | 39.0 | 25.5 | Correct |
| Jasper at Columbus North (+0.5) | Columbus North 30-6 | -24.0 | 24.5 | Incorrect |
| Boonville at Heritage Hills (-18.0) | Heritage Hills 48-6 | -42.0 | 24.0 | Correct |
| Culver Academy at John Glenn (+19.0) | Culver Academy 50-7 | 43.0 | 24.0 | Correct |
| Indianapolis Roncalli at East Central (-6.0) | Indianapolis Roncalli 28-10 | 18.0 | 24.0 | Incorrect |
| Fort Wayne Blackhawk at Bluffton (-45.5) | Bluffton 69-0 | -69.0 | 23.5 | Correct |
| River Forest at Lake Station (+15.5) | River Forest 45-6 | 39.0 | 23.5 | Correct |
| South Putnam at Cloverdale (+39.5) | South Putnam 63-0 | 63.0 | 23.5 | Correct |
| Delphi at Taylor (+15.0) | Delphi 38-0 | 38.0 | 23.0 | Correct |
| North Judson at Pioneer (-3.0) | Pioneer 35-9 | -26.0 | 23.0 | Correct |
| Twin Lakes at Logansport (-27.5) | Logansport 56-6 | -50.0 | 22.5 | Correct |
| Jay County at Heritage (-14.0) | Heritage 43-7 | -36.0 | 22.0 | Correct |
| Jeffersonville at Indianapolis Lutheran (-19.0) | Indianapolis Lutheran 47-6 | -41.0 | 22.0 | Correct |
| New Haven at Huntington North (-16.0) | Huntington North 38-0 | -38.0 | 22.0 | Correct |
| Monroe Central at Knightstown (-33.5) | Knightstown 55-0 | -55.0 | 21.5 | Correct |
| Rensselaer Central at Whiting (+26.5) | Rensselaer Central 27-22 | 5.0 | 21.5 | Correct |
| Rochester at Maconaquah (-21.5) | Maconaquah 49-6 | -43.0 | 21.5 | Correct |
| Frankton at Eastbrook (-14.0) | Eastbrook 42-7 | -35.0 | 21.0 | Correct |
| Edgewood at Indianapolis Scecina (+15.5) | Edgewood 55-19 | 36.0 | 20.5 | Correct |
| Fishers at Zionsville (-18.0) | Zionsville 45-7 | -38.0 | 20.0 | Correct |
| Indianapolis Shortridge at Faith Christian (+19.5) | Indianapolis Shortridge 47-8 | 39.0 | 19.5 | Correct |
| Culver at South Central (Union Mills) (+18.0) | Culver 53-16 | 37.0 | 19.0 | Correct |
| Lewis Cass at Southwood (+30.5) | Lewis Cass 63-14 | 49.0 | 18.5 | Correct |
| Clinton Central at Tri-Central (+26.5) | Clinton Central 51-7 | 44.0 | 17.5 | Correct |
| Goshen at NorthWood (-21.5) | NorthWood 49-10 | -39.0 | 17.5 | Correct |
| Connersville at Batesville (-19.0) | Batesville 48-12 | -36.0 | 17.0 | Correct |
| Gibson Southern at Princeton (+66.0) | Gibson Southern 49-0 | 49.0 | 17.0 | Correct |
| Lawrence Central at Carmel (-20.0) | Carmel 38-35 | -3.0 | 17.0 | Correct |
| New Prairie at South Bend Washington (+26.0) | New Prairie 43-0 | 43.0 | 17.0 | Correct |
| Lafayette Jeff at Muncie Central (+8.5) | Lafayette Jeff 45-20 | 25.0 | 16.5 | Correct |
| Valparaiso at Lake Central (+13.5) | Valparaiso 41-11 | 30.0 | 16.5 | Correct |
| Carroll (Fort Wayne) at Fort Wayne Luers (+33.0) | Carroll (Fort Wayne) 23-6 | 17.0 | 16.0 | Correct |
| Parke Heritage at Fountain Central (-2.0) | Fountain Central 32-14 | -18.0 | 16.0 | Correct |
| South Vermillion at Attica (+34.0) | South Vermillion 56-6 | 50.0 | 16.0 | Correct |
| Tri-West at Greenwood (+21.0) | Tri-West 54-17 | 37.0 | 16.0 | Correct |
| Triton at North Miami (-13.0) | North Miami 41-12 | -29.0 | 16.0 | Correct |
| East Chicago Central at Hammond Morton (-48.5) | Hammond Morton 33-0 | -33.0 | 15.5 | Correct |
| Prairie Heights at West Noble (-36.5) | West Noble 40-19 | -21.0 | 15.5 | Correct |
| Tippecanoe Valley at Bremen (+2.5) | Tippecanoe Valley 25-7 | 18.0 | 15.5 | Correct |
| Oak Hill at Mississinewa (-17.0) | Mississinewa 32-0 | -32.0 | 15.0 | Correct |
| South Bend St. Joseph at Penn (-16.0) | Penn 38-7 | -31.0 | 15.0 | Correct |
| Tecumseh at Switzerland County (+26.0) | Tecumseh 41-0 | 41.0 | 15.0 | Correct |
| Ben Davis at North Central (Indianapolis) (+11.5) | Ben Davis 35-9 | 26.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| Brown County at Edinburgh (-4.5) | Edinburgh 25-6 | -19.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| Fort Wayne Northrop at Fort Wayne Wayne (+21.5) | Fort Wayne Northrop 19-12 | 7.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| Lawrence North at Pike (+27.5) | Lawrence North 42-0 | 42.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| North Daviess at Springs Valley (+7.5) | North Daviess 34-12 | 22.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| West Vigo at Sullivan (-33.5) | Sullivan 48-0 | -48.0 | 14.5 | Correct |
| Columbia City at Norwell (+16.0) | Columbia City 43-13 | 30.0 | 14.0 | Correct |
| Indianapolis Attucks at Seymour (-7.0) | Seymour 35-14 | -21.0 | 14.0 | Correct |
| Pendleton Heights at Southport (+42.0) | Pendleton Heights 56-0 | 56.0 | 14.0 | Correct |
| Riverton Parke at Covington (+48.5) | Riverton Parke 47-12 | 35.0 | 13.5 | Correct |
| DeKalb at Leo (-5.0) | DeKalb 29-21 | 8.0 | 13.0 | Incorrect |
| Cambridge City Lincoln at Wes-Del (-58.5) | Wes-Del 71-0 | -71.0 | 12.5 | Correct |
| Pike Central at Washington (-24.5) | Washington 51-14 | -37.0 | 12.5 | Correct |
| Purdue Englewood at Park Tudor (+11.5) | Purdue Englewood 38-14 | 24.0 | 12.5 | Correct |
| South Bend Adams at Elkhart (-4.5) | Elkhart 40-23 | -17.0 | 12.5 | Correct |
| Hobart at Highland (+30.0) | Hobart 42-0 | 42.0 | 12.0 | Correct |
| LaPorte at Portage (+11.0) | Portage 20-19 | -1.0 | 12.0 | Incorrect |
| Alexandria at Frontier (+35.5) | Alexandria 30-6 | 24.0 | 11.5 | Correct |
| Evansville Bosse at Evansville Harrison (-23.5) | Evansville Harrison 41-6 | -35.0 | 11.5 | Correct |
| Evansville North at Evansville Central (+31.5) | Evansville North 71-28 | 43.0 | 11.5 | Correct |
| Calumet at Fort Wayne Concordia (-9.0) | Fort Wayne Concordia 42-22 | -20.0 | 11.0 | Correct |
| Decatur Central at Franklin (+33.0) | Decatur Central 35-13 | 22.0 | 11.0 | Correct |
| Evansville Reitz at Evansville Mater Dei (+8.0) | Evansville Reitz 35-16 | 19.0 | 11.0 | Correct |
| Mishawaka at Wawasee (+18.0) | Mishawaka 42-13 | 29.0 | 11.0 | Correct |
| South Spencer at Tell City (+4.0) | Tell City 35-28 | -7.0 | 11.0 | Incorrect |
| Eastside at Angola (+10.5) | Eastside 35-14 | 21.0 | 10.5 | Correct |
| Crawfordsville at Frankfort (+17.0) | Crawfordsville 21-14 | 7.0 | 10.0 | Correct |
| New Castle at Shenandoah (+14.0) | New Castle 50-46 | 4.0 | 10.0 | Correct |
| Western Boone at Cascade (-16.0) | Cascade 36-10 | -26.0 | 10.0 | Correct |
| Lebanon at Harrison (West Lafayette) (+7.5) | Harrison (West Lafayette) 17-15 | -2.0 | 9.5 | Incorrect |
| Southmont at Greencastle (+2.5) | Greencastle 35-28 | -7.0 | 9.5 | Incorrect |
| New Albany at Floyd Central (-52.0) | Floyd Central 50-7 | -43.0 | 9.0 | Correct |
| Boone Grove at Hammond Noll (+4.5) | Hammond Noll 31-27 | -4.0 | 8.5 | Incorrect |
| Danville at Terre Haute North (+50.5) | Danville 56-14 | 42.0 | 8.5 | Correct |
| Fort Wayne North at Fort Wayne Snider (-9.5) | Fort Wayne Snider 27-26 | -1.0 | 8.5 | Correct |
| Mount Vernon (Posey) at North Posey (-21.5) | North Posey 56-26 | -30.0 | 8.5 | Correct |
| Adams Central at Woodlan (+29.0) | Adams Central 44-7 | 37.0 | 8.0 | Correct |
| Clinton Prairie at Eastern (Greentown) (-26.0) | Eastern (Greentown) 41-7 | -34.0 | 8.0 | Correct |
| Madison at North Harrison (+16.0) | Madison 22-14 | 8.0 | 8.0 | Correct |
| North Vermillion at Seeger (-23.0) | Seeger 35-20 | -15.0 | 8.0 | Correct |
| West Washington at Salem (-13.0) | Salem 26-21 | -5.0 | 8.0 | Correct |
| Avon at Noblesville (+13.5) | Avon 21-0 | 21.0 | 7.5 | Correct |
| Paoli at North Knox (-6.5) | Paoli 14-13 | 1.0 | 7.5 | Incorrect |
| Scottsburg at Brownstown Central (-42.5) | Brownstown Central 35-0 | -35.0 | 7.5 | Correct |
| South Bend Riley at Mishawaka Marian (-6.5) | South Bend Riley 18-17 | 1.0 | 7.5 | Incorrect |
| Wheeler at Griffith (-15.5) | Griffith 30-7 | -23.0 | 7.5 | Correct |
| Churubusco at Lakeland (-6.0) | Churubusco 21-20 | 1.0 | 7.0 | Incorrect |
| Linton at Northview (-46.0) | Northview 59-6 | -53.0 | 7.0 | Correct |
| Manchester at Peru (-17.0) | Peru 33-23 | -10.0 | 7.0 | Correct |
| North Newton at Tri-County (+42.0) | North Newton 49-0 | 49.0 | 7.0 | Correct |
| Vincennes Lincoln at Owen Valley (+24.0) | Vincennes Lincoln 31-14 | 17.0 | 7.0 | Correct |
| Plainfield at Martinsville (+28.5) | Plainfield 56-21 | 35.0 | 6.5 | Correct |
| Perry Central at Mitchell (-3.0) | Perry Central 29-26 | 3.0 | 6.0 | Incorrect |
| Concord at Plymouth (+15.5) | Concord 35-14 | 21.0 | 5.5 | Correct |
| Franklin Central at Westfield (-22.5) | Westfield 42-14 | -28.0 | 5.5 | Correct |
| Northeastern at Hagerstown (-5.5) | Hagerstown 19-8 | -11.0 | 5.5 | Correct |
| Brownsburg at Hamilton Southeastern (+23.0) | Brownsburg 35-7 | 28.0 | 5.0 | Correct |
| Castle at Evansville Memorial (-18.0) | Evansville Memorial 37-14 | -23.0 | 5.0 | Correct |
| Eastern Hancock at Milan (+18.5) | Eastern Hancock 41-27 | 14.0 | 4.5 | Correct |
| Lowell at Andrean (-9.5) | Andrean 21-7 | -14.0 | 4.5 | Correct |
| Merrillville at Chesterton (+16.5) | Merrillville 21-0 | 21.0 | 4.5 | Correct |
| Sheridan at Carroll (Flora) (-2.5) | Carroll (Flora) 14-7 | -7.0 | 4.5 | Correct |
| Brebeuf Jesuit vs. Indianapolis Ritter (+29.0) | Brebeuf Jesuit 33-0 | 33.0 | 4.0 | Correct |
| Greenfield-Central at Centerville (-2.0) | Greenfield-Central 14-12 | 2.0 | 4.0 | Incorrect |
| Kankakee Valley at Munster (-31.0) | Munster 41-6 | -35.0 | 4.0 | Correct |
| Warsaw at Northridge (-3.0) | Northridge 37-30 | -7.0 | 4.0 | Correct |
| Central Noble at Garrett (-28.5) | Garrett 38-6 | -32.0 | 3.5 | Correct |
| South Adams at Southern Wells (+44.5) | South Adams 49-8 | 41.0 | 3.5 | Correct |
| Western at Tipton (-4.5) | Tipton 29-28 | -1.0 | 3.5 | Correct |
| Clarksville at Crawford County (+34.0) | Clarksville 51-14 | 37.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| East Noble at Bellmont (+50.0) | East Noble 47-0 | 47.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| Greensburg at Rushville (+24.0) | Greensburg 56-35 | 21.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| Kokomo at Richmond (+14.0) | Kokomo 24-7 | 17.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| Madison-Grant at Blackford (+33.0) | Madison-Grant 36-6 | 30.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| Union City at Winchester (-33.0) | Winchester 42-6 | -36.0 | 3.0 | Correct |
| Bloomington North at Whiteland (+0.5) | Whiteland 16-14 | -2.0 | 2.5 | Incorrect |
| Columbus East at Bedford North Lawrence (+1.5) | Columbus East 31-27 | 4.0 | 2.5 | Correct |
| Indian Creek at Triton Central (+25.5) | Indian Creek 35-7 | 28.0 | 2.5 | Correct |
| Crown Point at Michigan City (+39.0) | Crown Point 41-0 | 41.0 | 2.0 | Correct |
| Homestead at Warren Central (-30.0) | Warren Central 38-6 | -32.0 | 2.0 | Correct |
| Lawrenceburg at South Dearborn (+42.0) | Lawrenceburg 40-0 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Correct |
| Monrovia at Shelbyville (-9.0) | Shelbyville 27-20 | -7.0 | 2.0 | Correct |
| Fort Wayne Dwenger at Fort Wayne South (+24.5) | Fort Wayne Dwenger 37-14 | 23.0 | 1.5 | Correct |
| Jennings County at Charlestown (-36.5) | Charlestown 42-7 | -35.0 | 1.5 | Correct |
| Gary West at Knox (-21.0) | Knox 36-14 | -22.0 | 1.0 | Correct |
| Silver Creek at Corydon Central (+20.0) | Silver Creek 28-7 | 21.0 | 1.0 | Correct |
| Beech Grove at Speedway (+17.5) | Beech Grove 23-6 | 17.0 | 0.5 | Correct |
| Bloomington South at Center Grove (-14.0) | Center Grove 28-14 | -14.0 | 0.0 | Correct |
| Perry Meridian at Mooresville (-4.0) | Mooresville 21-17 | -4.0 | 0.0 | Correct |
| Winamac at Caston (-8.0) | Caston 16-8 | -8.0 | 0.0 | Correct |